| |
|
|
Instant reactions, delivered to your inbox |
|
|
|
COP27: RELAUNCHING CLIMATE ACTION IN A BURNING MENA REGION
|
|
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert
analysis and informed comments upon the MENA region’s most significant issues
and trends. Today, we place the spotlight upon COP27, the 27th annual UN
meeting, hosted this year in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh.
|
|
|
|
The Mediterranean region is currently warming
20% faster than the global average: devastating heatwaves, water shortages,
loss of biodiversity, and risks to food production are already affecting this ‘climate
change hotspot’. From 6 to 18 November 2022, Sharm El-Sheikh is hosting the
27th annual UN meeting (COP27): heads of state and climate leaders are
gathering in the Egyptian resort city in an attempt to relaunch global action
on climate mitigation and adaptation and find possible solutions to limit
global warming. The implementation of existing climate agreements, and their
respective financial commitments, is at the very centre of negotiations.
Nevertheless, in a year characterized by the return of war in Europe and
the consequent geopolitical and economic repercussions, furthering climate
ambitions seems an extremely difficult mission. Along with COP28, to be
held in November 2023 in the United Arab Emirates, this year’s edition
marks the growing commitment of MENA countries to global climate action.
However, balancing climate engagements with the over-dependence of the
region upon fossil fuels presents several
economic and political challenges. How will the countries of the region tackle
the effects of global warming upon their environment, biodiversity, and natural
resources? Will food security be impacted? What
opportunities for economic diversification, regional and international
cooperation could emerge from such climate action?
|
|
|
|
Experts from the ISPI MED network react on the
latest developments from Sharm El-Sheik, the growing impact of climate change within
the MENA region, and the economic and diplomatic opportunities stemming from
direct climate action.
|
|
|
|
Climate change is compromising the environment,
affecting livelihoods, and creating new tensions
|
|
As the climate changes, food security across
the MENA region is being compromised. Agricultural production is being hampered
by severe water scarcity, rising temperatures, and intense/extensive pest
infestations. Natural resources, especially biodiversity, are under relentless
threat from the persistent impacts of climate change. Forest fires, though
mostly of anthropogenic origin, are proliferating; wetlands and humid soils are
drying out due to recurring droughts which are
becoming increasingly intense and frequent. These impacts, amongst many others,
are negatively affecting livelihoods, especially those of rural communities,
forcing many to abandon their lands and move to cities and urban settlements.
This displacement, whether internal or transboundary, is leading to increased
demands upon social and economic services in host communities. With the world’s
economy stalling, the provision of these additional services has increasingly
become beyond the means of many governments which is causing heightened tension,
and at times hostilities, between the hosts and the displaced, both of whom are
competing for ever diminishing resources.
Nadim Farajalla, Director, Climate and Environment
Program, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs
|
|
|
|
Climate change is a threat to food security
|
|
Climate change will negatively affect food
production within the MENA region. It will also certainly cause significant
damage to agricultural export economies of fruit and vegetables in countries
such as Turkey, Tunisia, and Morocco. Droughts within export nations such as
North America, Brazil, India, and Australia can be even more threatening to
food security within the region than droughts experienced at home. The MENA
region is already the world’s largest grain importer, and in the near future
its food imports will yet again be required to increase. However, if other
countries are capable of producing an exportable surplus, and the MENA
countries can generate the foreign exchange to pay for such food imports, they
still might be able to adapt. That is why economic diversification, inclusive
growth, and social safety nets are so important for food security in the
region.
Eckart Woertz, Director, GIGA Institute for
Middle East Studies
|
|
|
|
COP27 will showcase Cairo’s climate ambitions
(and contradictions)
|
|
By presiding the UN Climate Conference (COP27),
Cairo is ideally taking a lead in global climate action. The conference is an
opportunity for the Egyptian government to showcase achievements in pathways
made towards energy transition, and also the overall ambition of its climate
strategy: Egypt aims at reaching a 42% share of renewable energy in its
electricity mix by 2035, and has approved a wide set of documents to support
its green transition. In addition, the COP27 is an opportunity for the country
to leverage its international standing, economic attractiveness, and diplomatic
stance (particularly in regards to Africa), as the main topics of the talks
will reflect the most urgent priorities for the continent. However, being under
the spotlight of COP27 means openly airing the country's many contradictions:
from the difficult compresence between climate goals and the targets of
becoming a regional energy hub, increasing natural gas exports, to the denounce
of human rights abuse and the crackdown on climate activist.
Aldo Liga, ISPI
|
|
|
|
Carbon neutrality, a turning point for GCC countries?
|
|
Just weeks before COP27, Oman announced its ambition to achieve carbon
neutrality by 2050, being the fourth GCC country to do so after the UAE, Saudi
Arabia, and Bahrain. This week at COP27, Oman released its carbon neutrality
strategy and was in fact the first GCC country to do so. This in itself can be
seen as a turning point for the GCC countries, featured heavily by hydrocarbon
wealth, to integrate economic decarbonisation into their future outlooks. Indeed,
this is a move in the right direction, as these countries aim to diversify
their sources of economic revenues and reduce dependence upon hydrocarbon
export revenues as much as possible by adopting a carbon neutrality strategy
spanning different economic sectors such as transportation, power, industry,
logistics, finance, and tourism. In such cases, economic decarbonisation
creates a wealth of new avenues for investments across different economic
sectors along different value chains, hence creating new jobs and possible
sources of income in different areas.
Aisha Al-Sarihi, Non-Resident Fellow,
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Research Fellow, National
University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute
|
|
|
|
Transition will be challenging for MENA hydrocarbon producers
|
|
The over-dependence upon fossil fuels, for both exporters and importers,
in the region suggests that the energy transition will be challenging at best,
and have major implications for the economic and fiscal health in MENA
countries. The region’s exporters must proactively diversify their energy
sources, despite the cost competitiveness of their fossil fuels, and also whilst
contending with an expected fall in their demand. Demand is likely to decline
as a result of increasingly rigorous policies on carbon and climate, greater
energy efficiencies (such as those derived from product improvements, or,
switching to cleaner energy sources), and a growing decoupling of energy
consumption from income in some advanced economies. These demand-side factors
will cause the shift to be ever more costly for those undertaking “transition”
investments. This is especially true for MENA’s export economies, many of which
already face high fiscal breakeven prices and need to embark upon
diversification drives, often spearheaded by the public sector, all whilst they
simultaneously lose oil and gas revenue.
Lama Kiyasseh, Investment Officer,
International Finance Corporation
|
|
|
|
Climate action could be the catalyst for regional diplomacy in the Gulf
|
|
The COP27 in Egypt has been tough for Europeans. The current scramble
for hydrocarbons (especially from the Gulf) to replace Russian energy has paved
the way for accusations of climate hypocrisy against the Europeans, undermining
years-long policy work upon climate change. A much more active engagement would
be key to demonstrate that Europe remains true to its climate commitments,
despite the current unprecedented energy security crisis. Moreover, climate
action could be the catalyst for regional diplomacy within the Gulf amongst the
monarchies, Iraq and Iran. Amid the collapse of talks to revive the nuclear
deal with Iran, the economic diplomacy that was leveraged by the Gulf
monarchies to entice Iran away from military confrontation, might soon become
impossible. “Softer” issues such as environmental security might become the
only viable platform to at least keep dialogue open among Gulf players.
Europeans should start working now, in Egypt, on a path of incremental
engagement towards the UAE-based COP28 to promote the establishment of a
sustainable and operational dialogue upon environmental security including the
GCC countries, Iraq and Iran. Europeans can significantly strengthen existing
regional initiatives with diplomacy, technical and scientific cooperation and
strategic investments.
Cinzia Bianco, Visiting
Fellow, ECFR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ISPI - Italian Institute for International Political Studies Subscribe to the MED Newsletter
MED – MEDITERRANEAN DIALOGUES is the annual high-level
initiative promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation and ISPI (Italian Institute for International
Political Studies) in Rome with the aim to rethink traditional approaches to
the area complementing analyses of current challenges with new ideas and
suggestions and to draft a new “positive agenda”, addressing shared
challenges at both the regional and the international level. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and ISPI.
|
|
|
|
Via Clerici, 5 - 20121 Milan |
|
ispi.segreteria@ispionline.it
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.jpg)
.jpg)
